This special issue brief was prepared for the American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) by Larry Graeve and Amy Burk of The Weitz Company. For additional information, please contact:
Tariffs played a big part in pushing inflation upward the past six months. That, coupled with the labor shortage, caused a significant increase of 6 to 8 percent for the year-over-year rate. We are, however, seeing signs of market cooling. According to Engineering News-Record (ENR), the Construction Industry Confidence Index (CICI) dropped from a score of 70 in the third quarter to 59 in the fourth quarter. The CICI is a survey of 250 large construction and design firms. Most believe the market will decline later in 2019 or early into 2020. Another indicator is the Architectural Billing Index, which also shows a decline over the same period. Much of the information reviewed indicates a steady market for the first half of 2019, but a potential for slowing later in the year.